WHILE MOST BELIEVE THE TRANSITION TO RENEWABLE FUELS IS IN PROGRESS AND WILL BE COMPLETED SOON, THE FACT IS THAT THE US GOV BELIEVES RENEWABLES WILL STILL BE A TINY PERCENTAGE OF OUR CONSUMPTION IN 2040.
The US Department of Energy prepares an annual energy output, continuously updated and located here. It’s instructive to look at the most recent to see where the government believes our consumption is headed in 2040. The summary is in the graph below:
The above is the reality of the situation: If you think massive shift to renewable energy is just around the corner, the US government disagrees with you.
A comparison to Germany is always interesting because it’s another wealthy economy with higher motivations for change. For example, Germany saw renewables surpass coal in terms of the source for energy consumption in 2019—a crossover the EIA isn’t foreseeing in the US until nearly 2040. But make no mistake: Germany too, sees natural gas becoming its primary source of energy source for consumption beginning in 2030. And by 2040, they see 25% of their consumption coming from renewables (the US is at 12% at that time).